13 September 2007

The Horse Race Discussions

No, they have nothing to do with the September yearling sale at Keeneland I've been blogging and twittering about. One of the most common discussions ever on the big political blogs has always been the horse race - who's ahead in the polls, who's trending favorably, where do candidates sit head to head. And the explosion of polling companies provide new fodder every day.

Autumn marks the official beginning of prediction season, and typically political bloggers like to put the best spin on the numbers and what they'll mean in a year. So can you guess the blog that published this about the Virginia Senate race?
...it seems likely that the VA GOP is about to embark on a nasty primary consisting of character attacks, moderate vs. conservative battle lines, and a general nastiness that will turn off the very voters who are already sympathetic to Warner. Unless something changes the dynamic of this race, it is already a likely D pickup.

Put alongside CO, NH, ME, OR, MN, and NE, Democrats are likely to gain 4-7 seats this cycle. The next Congress could easily have 42 to 45 R Senators.

Uber-liberal race handicapper Markos? Maybe the former political staffers at Americablog?

Nope. Red State.

This is shaping up to be an interesting season in the political blogosphere. For the first time in a long time, perhaps the first time ever in the blogosphere, top conservatives are predicting significant losses with more than a year to go before election day. Frankly, I think it's a little absurd to predict things like that with a year-plus to go, but it reflects the mood of the activists and sends cues to those who earn a living talking with political activists online.

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